据钻机地带9月28日报道，未来5年，美国石油日产量将从2021年初的1096万桶增长，到2030年增长至1290万桶以上。

根据GlobalData的说法，增幅最大预计发生在二叠纪盆地。在周一晚些时候发给钻机地带的一份声明中，该公司概述了该地区的原油和凝析油供应预计将增加近90万桶/天，从2021年的450万桶/天增加到展望期结束的540万桶/天。

GlobalData强调，美国48个州的产量将超过疫情前的水平，并补充道，美国48个州的运营商在过去一年中钻井和完井取得了显著的改善。据GlobalData称，据说他们将非常规项目的盈亏平衡价格降至每桶35美元，这将使该国的页岩产量到2024年反弹至疫情前的水平。

GlobalData的油气分析师Svetlana Doh在发给钻机地带的一份公司声明中表示，尽管油价大幅上涨，但运营商在资本支出方面相当谨慎，并开始围绕高回报的核心资产制定战略。

Doh在声明中补充道，因此，由于WTI价格上涨，美国的钻机总数相当低迷，与疫情前相比，仍处于63%的水平。

他继续说道，2021年上半年，美国油气钻机数量一直在稳步增长，但同比下降29%。2021年上半年，美国页岩储层平均活跃钻机327台，较2020年上半年减少了132台。然而，最近的油价回升促进了钻井活动的改善，1月份，主要页岩区有332台钻机在运营，到2021年6月增加到418台。

Doh表示，政府的措施使得租赁的过程非常耗时，而且从长远来看，单是这一点就可能伤害到拥有大量联邦土地的运营商。然而，对生产的整体影响预计不会立即显现。运营商已经提前准备好了钻井许可证，其次，在有效但未到期的联邦租约上仍将允许钻探。

GlobalData在其网站上强调，美国本土48州有几个“高产”的油页岩和页岩气区块，对美国的经济发展做出了“重大”贡献。GlobalData指出，这一开发主要是由二叠纪盆地、DJ盆地、鹰福特（Eagle Ford）和巴肯Bakken的主要油页岩以及Haynesville、Marcellus、Utica和Scoop Stack的主要气页岩驱动的。

美国能源信息署(EIA) 9月8日发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)强调，6月份美国原油总日均产量为1130万桶，这是最近的月度历史数据点。EIA在其9月的STEO中预测，“受陆上致密油产量增长的推动”，到2021年底，产量将保持在该水平附近，然后在2022年增加到日均1170万桶。

EIA在其9月份的STEO中指出，我们预计，运营商开始增加钻机数量，从而抵消产量下降，这将带来增长。

郝芬 译自 钻机地带

原文如下：

USA Oil Production Outlook Set to Grow

Rig zone

28 Sep.2021

The U.S. oil production outlook is set to grow over the next five years from 10.96 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in the beginning of 2021 to more than 12.9 MMbpd by 2030.

That’s according to GlobalData, which noted that the biggest growth is expected to happen in the Permian Basin. In a statement sent to Rigzone late Monday, the company outlined that crude oil and condensate supply in the region is projected to increase by almost 0.90 MMbpd, from 4.5 MMbpd in 2021 to 5.4 MMbpd by the end of the outlook period.

U.S. Lower 48 production is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels, GlobalData highlighted, adding that U.S. Lower 48 operators were able to reach significant drilling and completion improvements in the past year. They were said to lower the break-even price of unconventional projects to as low as $35 per barrel, a development which will make shale production in the country rebound to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, according to GlobalData.

“Despite the significant increase in oil prices, operators have been quite prudent in their capital spending and started building their strategies around high-return core assets,” Svetlana Doh, an oil and gas analyst at GlobalData, said in a company statement, which was sent to Rigzone.

“As a result, total rig count in the U.S. has been quite sluggish in response to an increase in WTI price and is still at 63 percent level compared to the number of rigs before the pandemic started,” Doh added in the statement.

“The U.S. oil and gas rig count has been growing steadily during H1 2021, however, it is down by 29 percent annually. An average of 327 rigs were active across the U.S. shale plays during H1 2021, which is 132 rigs lower compared to H1 2020. However, the recent oil price recovery has facilitated the improvement in rig activity and in January, 332 rigs were operational across major shale plays, which increased to 418 in June 2021,” Doh went on to say.

“Government's measure is making the process of leasing time consuming and this alone could hurt operators with significant acreage on federal land in the long run,” Doh said. “However, the overall effect on production is not expected to be immediate. Operators have been stocking up drilling permits in advance, and secondly, drilling will still be allowed on active but not expired federal leases,” Doh added.

The U.S. Lower 48 has several “prolific” oil and gas shale plays that make “significant” contributions to the economic development of the U.S., GlobalData highlights on its website. This development is primarily driven by the major oil shales of the Permian Basin, DJ Basin, Eagle Ford and Bakken as well as the major gas shales of Haynesville, Marcellus, Utica and Scoop Stack plays, GlobalData outlines.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on September 8, highlighted that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.3 MMbpd in June - the most recent monthly historical data point. In its September STEO, the EIA forecasted that production will remain near that level through the end of 2021 before increasing to an average of 11.7 MMbpd in 2022, “driven by growth in onshore tight oil production”.

“We expect growth will result from operators beginning to increase rig additions, offsetting production decline rates,” the EIA noted in its September STEO.