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若遇寒冬 花旗预计天然气价格将达100美元
举报2021-09-24 10:06:12 来源:中国石化新闻网

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据世界石油网站9月23日报道 花旗集团对下一季度的亚洲和欧洲天然气预测翻了一番多,并表示,如果冬天尤其寒冷,价格可能飙升至100美元/百万英热单位。


由于欧洲季节性低库存,导致北半球冬季来临前发电原料的竞标战,液化天然气价格飙升。本月迄今为止,日韩市场价格已上涨近50%,至30美元/百万英热单位。在欧洲,液化天然气价格上涨约40%,接近25美元。美国的价格涨幅则较为平缓。


花旗银行在报告中表示,下季度的平均价格将略高于花旗基本情况下的当前水平。不过,价格可能会飙升,如果异常寒冷的天气刺激需求,美国墨西哥湾的飓风中断供应,货物交易价格可能在100美元/百万英热单位,或以石油当量计算,每桶580美元。


花旗分析师在报告中表示:“未来几周和几个月,全球天然气价格可能继续呈抛物线走势。强劲的需求和缺乏供应响应使市场急剧收紧。任何意外的需求激增或供应中断都可能推动价格进一步上涨。”


花旗表示,其他燃料的天然气价格飙升所产生的连锁反应也比最初想象的要复杂。报告称,改用液化石油气取暖将影响石脑油和汽油,更多使用煤油将影响航空燃料和柴油价格,而燃油将在发电中发挥更大作用。该行表示,液化天然气涨势将逐渐消退,到明年第三季度,价格可能会比今冬水平下降70%。


王磊 摘译自 世界石油


原文如下:


Citigroup sees gas at $100/MMBtu, if winter is cold enough


Citigroup Inc. more than doubled its Asian and European natural gas forecasts for next quarter and said prices could surge to as high as $100 per million British thermal units in the event of a particularly cold winter.


Liquefied natural gas prices are skyrocketing as seasonally low European inventories. Japan-Korea marker prices have jumped almost 50% so far this month to near $30 per mmBtu, while in Europe LNG is up around 40% to close to $25. Price gains in the U.S. have been more subdued.


Average prices next quarter will be moderately higher than current levels in Citi’s base case, the bank said in the note. However, there are likely to be price spikes and if unusually cold weather boosts demand and hurricanes in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico disrupt supplies, cargoes could trade in the $100 per mmBtu range, or $580 a barrel in oil-equivalent terms, it said.


“Global natural gas prices could continue to go parabolic in the coming weeks and months,” Citi analysts said in the note. “Strong demand and a lack of supply response have sharply tightened the market. Any surprise demand surge or supply disruptions could propel price further upward.”


The ripple effects from the surge in gas prices into other fuels also look wider than initially thought, Citi said. Switching to liquefied petroleum gas for heating will influence naphtha and gasoline, greater use of kerosene will affect jet fuel and diesel prices, while fuel oil will play a bigger role in electricity generation, it said. However the LNG rally will fade -- prices could drop 70% by the third quarter of next year from this winter’s levels, the bank said.

 

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